The Bees are the sexy beasts of the Premier League’s mid-table

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What is likely to go well?

Last season, Brentford made suspicions of second season syndrome look wasted and foolish. Having stayed up for two years, they can now consider themselves consolidated in the top flight and still have one of the lowest wage bills in the division. Only this summer have they begun eating into transfer profit; even then it has been done thoughtfully and sensible.

Thomas Frank will build around his defence again, even more important given the nagging question in the other penalty box. Ben Mee and Ethan Pinnock were the most underrated defensive combination in the league last year. Nathan Collins has come to provide support and competition for places.

But it’s the tactical flexibility that is most appealing. Frank rotates between two different formations – 3-5-2 and 4-3-3 – and may use one of Kevin Schade or Kian Lewis-Potter with Bryan Mbeumo and Yoann Wissa as part of a fluid front three. The switch in shapes allows Brentford to prioritise numbers and energy in midfield or attacking wing-backs. They are arguably the best-coached team in the league.

What is going to be a challenge?

The punishment handed to Ivan Toney makes life complicated for Brentford. Had he been ruled out for the entire campaign, Frank could have bought a starter to play the same role (particularly as there were rumours of interest in Toney before his ban). Now, with Toney back in January, they have to deal with what they have until then.

That need not be a problem. One of the most remarkable statistics of last season – at any club – was that Mbeumo and Wissa both scored in every single game they started together (i.e. when Toney was unavailable). At the other end of the pitch, David Raya has been halfway out of the door for some time, but it may still take time to acclimatise to life without him.

The only other sticking point is that last season’s success was largely founded upon overperformance against the biggest clubs in the division. Brentford beat Manchester City home and away and beat each of Manchester United, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea at least once. There is no reason why they can’t again challenge the strongest teams in the league, but each of them may have improved since May. Brentford may have to balance out their points across the division a little more if they’re to reach the same heights.

How has the transfer window gone so far?

It’s been a little quieter than we expected, actually. The signing of Collins broke the club’s transfer record, with Frank still sure of his interest after the defender dropped out of Wolves’ first team. Schade was already on loan, but the deal has been made permanent for a fee of around £20m.

The only other arrival is Raya’s replacement, Mark Flekken. Do I know an awful lot about him? No. Do I trust that Brentford have identified the perfect fit for their system at less than half of Raya’s sale price? Obviously yes.

Key player

When looking to account for the loss of chance creator Christian Eriksen last season, Frank pushed another Danish midfielder further forward and it did the trick. Mathias Jensen was Brentford’s most prolific creator of chances. He also allowed Toney to stay closer to goal, meaning Toney had fewer touches and Brentford had fewer shots, but they were better-value shots taken closer to goal.

That’s going to matter even more this season, because the absence of Toney presumably makes crossing from deep looking for a headed shot less likely. Jensen will be tasked with playing through balls into all three of the versatile forwards.

The manager

Frank is the Premier League’s great overachiever who remains sated at Brentford and thus not tempted by bigger jobs because he has total faith in the structure above him to provide the tools below him. Frank will reflect upon Graham Potter’s experience at Chelsea last season and reason that the best place to manage is at the club that makes your job the easiest.

Want a handy indicator of all this? A team with two top-flight seasons in 80 years have just lost their top scorer and centre forward for half the season, haven’t replaced him and yet nobody has an iota of doubt that Brentford will stay up this season. That’s because Frank is a magic man.

Prediction

Toney’s absence will cause some flux, but Brentford are the sexy member of the Premier League’s mid-table. 10th

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