Pep Guardiola plots squad overhaul with Declan Rice and Josko Gvardiol on radar

Ask executives, agents and seasoned transfer observers what this summer’s window will end up looking like and a theme emerges: what will Manchester City do?

As much as the Saudi Pro League is emerging as a significant and unpredictable market disruptor the broad consensus is that it will be City’s activity that will set the wheels turning on the close season’s biggest deals.

On Wednesday, it emerged that City will lose Ilkay Gundogan on a free transfer, a substantial blow that will turn a planned transfer market refresh into something potentially much more substantial.

With Gundogan set to reject City’s overtures and move to Spain, their long-standing interest in Declan Rice will almost certainly be formalised. They are not the same player – and Gundogan’s outstanding form in the Treble run-in makes him almost irreplaceable – but Pep Guardiola is a huge fan of Rice, already the subject of two rejected bids from Arsenal.

West Ham will certainly hope a bid is forthcoming as they look to raise close to £100m from the sale of a player who is arguably the most complete midfielder on the market this summer.

City began their overhaul by striking a £25m deal for Chelsea’s Mateo Kovacic, who arrives four years after Guardiola first contemplated moving for him when he left Real Madrid for Chelsea.

It is a fairly low-key transfer for the Treble winners, a relatively small fee for a player close to 30, but typical of a club who are recruiting from a position of strength.

Kovacic has the potential to be this summer’s Manuel Akanji, the centre-back recruited from Borussia Dortmund for £14.6m with minimal competition a year ago. That turned out to be an inspired piece of business.

Like Akanji, Kovacic is being brought to City because he has the requisite experience, technical ability and football IQ to slot straight into Guardiola’s exacting plans.

Elsewhere, there is a substantial amount of uncertainty surrounding City’s squad. That is certain to lead to further moves.

Funds will certainly not be a problem for the newly-crowned European champions, who are operating under the maxim of “business as normal” despite the 115 financial fair play charges that hang over the club.

Chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak’s defiant rejection of wrongdoing earlier this week reflects confidence at the Etihad they will be cleared and those inside the club point to their smart business over successive windows as one of the reasons they will be armed with such a substantial budget.

There is a certainly a boldness to City’s recent sales that reflects the club’s confidence in their recruitment processes – and some insiders believe they will attempt to replicate that in the coming weeks.

Last summer they sold Raheem Sterling, Oleksandr Zinchenko and Gabriel Jesus to direct title rivals because they were confident in the upgrades they’d secured. That was borne out by the Treble win.

A year on, there are suggestions they may sell England international Kyle Walker, who is interesting Bayern Munich, while Kalvin Phillips’s first-season struggles make him vulnerable, even if the player wants to remain at the Etihad.

Bernardo Silva is once again being linked with a move to Barcelona, although with Gundogan’s exit that loss is unthinkable for the champions.

The suspicion is that whatever happens with those players, Guardiola favours evolution of this brilliant side. His perfectionism means he simply won’t settle. A move for RB Leipzig’s Croatian international Josko Gvardiol is being worked on.