What Wales need to qualify for Euro 2024

A familiar path coincides with familiar problems for Rob Page’s Wales, who are once more preparing for a play-off to reach a major tournament.

Two years ago, Wales reached the World Cup in Qatar via the play-offs, two wins in Cardiff over Austria and then Ukraine ensuring they ended that particular 64-year wait.

Now, they are two wins away from making their third straight European Championship, and have home advantage this month in their bid to play in Germany this summer.

That said, few are predicting the Welsh to breeze through to Euro 2024, where the Netherlands, Austria and France await the victor of this particular pathway in Group D.

How Wales can reach Euro 2024

First up for Wales, a meeting with Finland in the semi-finals on Thursday at the Cardiff City Stadium, with Poland hosting Estonia in the other Path A semi at the same time in Warsaw.

The winners will then fight for a place at Euro 2024 on Tuesday 26 March – and this is deliberately the most difficult of three routes to the tournament through the play-offs.

Path B will see Bosnia and Herzegovina or Ukraine face Israel or Iceland in another final, while Path C places 2004 winners Greece against Kazakhstan, with the victor playing Georgia or Luxembourg in Tuesday’s third final.

Should Wales beat Finland, the draw ensures they will host the Path A final against either Poland or Estonia at the Cardiff City Stadium.

Are Wales favourites to reach Euro 2024?

Two simple words explain why Wales are not the favourites to reach Euro 2024: Robert Lewandowski. The Barcelona striker is Poland’s talisman – the nation’s captain, record goalscorer (86) and most-capped player of all time (146).

And at 35, he remains a force to be reckoned with. The forward who averaged almost a goal a game for Bayern Munich across eight seasons already has 20 goals for Barcelona this season, while his tally of 23 in La Liga alone last term helped them win the title against expectations.

Supported by a strong cast including Juventus goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny, Aston Villa’s Matty Cash, Arsenal’s Jakub Kiwior and Napoli’s Piotr Zielinski, they are arguably the team to beat in Path A.

They are though just behind Wales in the Fifa rankings. The Welsh are 29th, while Poland climbed one place to 30th from 31st, which had been their lowest standing since 2016.

As high as fifth in 2017, Poland may not be the level they were when Lewandowski was in his prime, but they are the narrow favourites to reach Euro 2024 (evens) ahead of Wales (6-4 at time of writing) with the bookmakers.

Poland also beat Wales twice in 2022, winning their Nations League meetings 2-1 at home and 1-0 away – Lewandowski’s strike partner Karol Swiderski, also in the current squad for the play-offs, scoring the only goal in Cardiff.

Both nations will be expected to overcome Thursday’s challenges, with Finland ranked 60th and Estonia 123rd.

Though Poland stand as the likely finalists-in-waiting, Wales will not treat Finland like a foregone conclusion. Their last meeting was a 0-0 draw in 2021, while a more recent warning was the Finns’ double over Northern Ireland in Euro 2024 qualifying.

Finland beat Northern Ireland 4-0 at home and 1-0 away, but missed out on making Euro 2024 directly when finishing third in Group H behind Denmark and Slovenia. Northern Ireland were a distant fifth.

Problems and positives for Wales

It’s nothing new, according to head coach Page, who is dealing with the familiar issue of a squad featuring some players out of favour at their club.

Most pressingly, all four goalkeepers are not starting at club level. Leicester’s Danny Ward is the current Wales No 1, a standing only boosted by the fact Wayne Hennessey, Tom King and Adam Davies are also fringe players domestically.

Ward has been reluctant to leave Leicester and has been reduced to just two Premier League 2 games this season, while Hennessey – who has 109 Wales caps – is yet to feature for Nottingham Forest. King is third choice at Wolves, while Davies has just the one appearance in the EFL Cup for Sheffield United this term.

“It’s hard sometimes to just get out of a club, I understand that. When I put my player head on, I have sympathy for Danny,” said Page, who had called for some players to move in the January transfer window in search of regular gametime.

“It’s hard sometimes and not easy to just get out when there are wages, fees and all-sorts involved, it is out of your control.

“We’ve dealt with it in the past. I’m just going to focus on the positives and the positives are that the majority of our squad are out playing football and playing well. We’ve never had the luxury of the amount of players playing that we do at the moment.”

Tottenham’s Brennan Johnson is arguably the leading light in this post-Gareth Bale era, and he could form a front three alongside Fulham’s Harry Wilson and striker Kieffer Moore, who heeded Page’s advice and moved in January – he has six goals in 10 games at Ipswich since joining on loan from Bournemouth.

Page has recalled Aaron Ramsey to the squad, the midfielder having missed the majority of the season at Cardiff through injury, but fitness may prevent him from starting against Finland. Spurs’ Ben Davies will therefore likely take the armband.

Ethan Ampadu and Daniel James are both in line for their 50th Wales caps, and are two-quarters of the contingent from Leeds, along with Joe Rodon and Connor Roberts, the latter on loan from Burnley.

As Page points out, therefore, his squad does not merely boast players on the periphery.

This blend of Premier League experience with a confident core from high-flying Championship sides could be the just the ticket – one that books their place at Euro 2024.