Can Wales qualify for Euro 2024? Group D permutations and play-off path explained

2023-11-16Last Updated: 2023-11-16

163 2 minutes read

Wales are bidding to reach a third straight European Championship – and qualification for Euro 2024 is currently in their own hands.

But after a rollercoaster campaign, the Welsh will not be thinking they are destined for Germany just yet.

Group D has been a slog, with Wales among four nations to have lost at least two games already.

The only team with just one defeat to their name so far, Turkey, are already through, leaving one automatic qualification spot left.

And with Wales currently second, they need to win their final two matches this month to secure a Euro 2024 spot ahead of Croatia, whom they beat 2-1 in Cardiff last month.

Robert Page’s side will be boosted by that victory, but they know their November fixtures are not easy, with an away trip to Armenia on Saturday 18 November before they host Turkey three days later.

Wales lost 4-2 at home to Armenia in June, and later that month they lost 2-0 in Turkey as well, so both will be seen as formidable opponents.

Euro 2024 qualifying fixtures

All times GMT

18 November

2pm: Armenia vs Wales
5pm: Latvia vs Croatia

21 November

7.45pm: Croatia vs Armenia
7.45pm: Wales vs Turkey

Subsequent wins over Latvia and Croatia have since taken Wales to 10 points, and that has them level with Croatia, who travel to Latvia on Saturday before hosting Armenia on Tuesday.

The state of play in Group D (Photo: Uefa.com)

So, in one sense, it’s “simple”. Beat Armenia and Turkey and Wales have qualified for Euro 2024. They could even qualify on Saturday if they beat Armenia and Croatia lose in Latvia, which is in truth an unlikely combination of results.

Should Wales pick up fewer points than Croatia over the course of the next two matches and finish third, then they are all-but certainly into March’s play-offs.

This is where the Uefa Nations League comes into play, and with Wales in League A of that competition they would therefore compete in Path A, one of three play-off “paths” to Euro 2024.

All paths include a one-legged semi-final and then final, much like Wales’ route to the 2022 World Cup after they beat Austria and Ukraine.

Wales could face similarly stiff competition this time around if they drop into the play-offs, with one of Czech Republic or Poland set to go into Path A.

Italy and Switzerland are yet to qualify and could also feature come March.

Play-off paths – as it stands

Ahead of the November matches, with Croatia and Italy currently third in their respective groups, they would drop into the play-offs.

The process has also been designed to give smaller nations a chance of reaching the Euros, as seen in Path B and Path C.

Semi-finals – Path A: Croatia vs Estonia, Italy vs Poland

Semi-finals – Path B: Israel vs Iceland, Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Finland

Semi-finals – Path C: Georgia vs Luxembourg, Greece vs Kazakhstan

If it sounds complicated, it is.

The Nations League transformed the play-off process for the Euros, so if you do not finish within the top two of your qualification group and make it automatically, you are left waiting until the completion of the group stages – i.e. 21 November – to discover your fate.

Wales, quite rightly, and obviously, will want to avoid all of this.