Can Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2023? Odds favour Novak Djokovic but new world No 1 is a threat

QUEENS — Carlos Alcaraz says he is one of the favourites to win the Wimbledon title after beating Alex De Minaur 6-4, 6-4 to claim the Queen’s title, his first on grass.

The victory also returned the Spaniard to world No 1, meaning he usurps Novak Djokovic as top seed at Wimbledon.

However, the seven-time champion remains favourite to make it five in a row, but Alcaraz believes he is well-placed to upset the odds.

“I have a lot of confidence right now coming into Wimbledon. I ended the week playing at the high level. So right now I feel one of the favourites, you know, to win Wimbledon,” Alcaraz said.

“But honestly, I have to get more experience on grass. Even [though] I won the title, I’ve just played 11 matches in my career on grass, so I have to get more experience, more hours.

“But obviously after beating amazing guys, great players, and the level that I played, I consider myself one of the favourites or one of the players to be able to win Wimbledon.”

It is 15 years since a Spaniard did the grass-court double, winning Queen’s and Wimbledon in the space of a couple of weeks. That of course was Rafael Nadal, a man in whose large footsteps Alcaraz spends much of his life trying to follow.

Alcaraz’s game is a bit more Roger Federer than Nadal – for starters he is right-handed, but also hits a harder, flatter forehand than his countryman’s top-spin spitting cobra. It is no less effective though, and in theory more of a weapon on the skiddier grass courts.

The world No 2 does not have the same serving armoury as Federer, whose serve became arguably the best on tour towards the end of his career as he became an even more aggressive player. Indeed after winning his second-round match at Queen’s, Alcaraz spent 40 more minutes on the practice courts, mostly hitting serves with stand-in coach Samuel Lopez.

But Alcaraz’s main coach Juan Carlos Ferrero maintains that his charge’s own serve is much improved from when he first came on tour three years ago – and beaten Queen’s finalist De Minaur agreed.

Wimbledon 2023 odds

(Best available, as of 25 June; 40-1 bar)

• Novak Djokovic – 4-6
• Carlos Alcaraz – 7-2
• Daniil Medvedev – 16-1
• Jannik Sinner – 18-1
• Holger Rune – 33-1
• Taylor Fritz – 33-1
• Sebastian Korda – 33-1

“I think that part of his game is underrated,” De Minaur said.

“But I think today he showed in the important points he had a massive serve, and at times I put myself in that position and you can only say ‘Too good’.”

The 20-year-old is clearly a fast learner and a keen student – he says he has been watching videos of Federer and Andy Murray on grass to learn how best to move on the trickiest surface on tour. And his Queen’s run will give him confidence that grass is not so different after all.

But no one, not even Ferrero it seems, expected him to take to it so quickly this year.

“I surprised myself honestly with the level that I’m playing right now,” Alcaraz said.

“How I’m feeling on court, I didn’t expect to feel that in just six days.”

It is a little disingenuous to style Alcaraz as a total grass-court rookie. He beat Jan-Lennard Struff, Tallon Griekspoor and Oscar Otte at Wimbledon last year to reach the fourth round.

And in terms of preparation this year, he could hardly have asked for a better run at Queen’s: he was tested by a lucky loser with nothing more to lose in Arthur Rinderknech, beat a grass-court expert in Grigor Dimitrov, and was untroubled by the enormous serving of Sebastian Korda.

Nevertheless, the final was only his 11th professional match on grass and against one of the few players on tour who could genuinely claim to be faster across the ground than the powerful Spaniard in Alex De Minaur.

Underpowered but a ferocious competitor, victory over De Minaur rarely comes easily, as Alcaraz found out in Barcelona when it took nearly four hours to separate them.

On the grass of Queen’s, it was never likely to take nearly as long as that, but Alcaraz knew he was in a battle when he saved two break points at 3-4 having forced none of his own.

He did break in the very next game, enough to claim the set, and the second was similarly a one-break affair, handing Alcaraz victory in a comparatively speedy 96 minutes.

There was one slight note of concern though regarding Alcaraz’s fitness: he called the trainer on after the first set to treat an apparent issue in his right thigh.

This year alone, he has missed the Australian Open with a hamstring problem and part of the clay-court season because of some “post-traumatic arthritis” in his wrist – but he shrugged off Sunday’s injury.

“This is something I didn’t feel during the week, but I think it’s normal,” Alcaraz said.

“It’s something that all the players… feel some problems during the week, during the year, and you have to take care about.

“But it’s nothing serious. We are gonna work this week before Wimbledon, you know, to be at 100 per cent to Wimbledon, but it is something that I’m not too worried about.”