What Newcastle need to qualify for Champions League last 16

Qualifying for the Champions League last season arguably came ahead of schedule for Newcastle United and manager Eddie Howe, and they are struggling to juggle the demands of playing in Europe’s top competition while also keeping up with their rivals in the Premier League.

With a relatively shallow squad hit by a spate of injuries and running on empty amid a packed fixture schedule, the team has dropped to seventh in the top flight following back-to-back losses last week and, on Wednesday, faces the very real prospect of being eliminated from the Champions League before the knockout stage.

Newcastle host AC Milan with both teams on five points, two behind second-place Paris Saint-Germain and five adrift of already-qualified Borussia Dortmund.

“The Group of Death” has certainly lived up to its name, with qualification still not a foregone conclusion.

In fact, all four sides can technically still reach the last 16.

How Newcastle can reach knockout stages

Newcastle need a win at St James’ Park and for PSG to draw or lose against Dortmund in Germany to seal a top-two finish and advance to the last 16.

Lose and Newcastle would be out of Europe completely, not even dropping into the Europa League play-offs courtesy of a third-place finish in the group.

It’s a huge night, then, for the North East team and their Saudi ownership – the Public Investment Fund (PIF) – following the £300m purchase of the club in 2021 that invited accusations of sportswashing amid scrutiny of the kingdom’s human rights record.

Failing in the Champions League, the biggest show in club football, would be an early blow to their new-found status as a major disruptor for the established elite.

Maybe it shouldn’t come as a surprise, though.

After all, Newcastle was placed with three storied opponents in the toughest group in the Champions League, meaning every match has been a big occasion for a club playing in the competition for the first time in 20 years.

Coupled with that is an absentee list of which Howe has never seen the likes before. Sven Botman, Dan Burn, Callum Wilson, Harvey Barnes, Sean Longstaff, Jacob Murphy, Nick Pope and Elliot Anderson are among those who are or have been injured, while offseason signing Sandro Tonali was banned for 10 months in October for breaching betting rules.

Against Tottenham on Sunday, Newcastle fielded the same 10 outfield players for the fifth straight game and looked to be running on empty as they slumped to a 4-1 loss.

“Physically we looked fatigued and there was not much we could do about it,” Howe said. “We’re not aflush with options.”

Given their wealth, they could be.

All the talk after the 2021 takeover was which of football’s so-called “galacticos” would be heading to Newcastle. Kylian Mbappe? Erling Haaland? Neymar?

When Manchester City came under Abu Dhabi ownership in 2008, their first signing was a jaw-dropper – Robinho, a flamboyant Brazil winger at the time.

Newcastle’s first arrival in the PIF era? Kieran Tripper, a solid English right-back.

Indeed, Newcastle’s transfer strategy has been sensible rather than spectacular, with the new owners keeping within financial limits in their slow build and operating like a normal club when they clearly aren’t anymore.

Newcastle, having joined the ranks of the state-owned clubs, will likely be a force at the top of English and European football for years to come – but maybe not this season given the scenario they currently finds themselves in.

And failing to qualify for the round of 16 could have serious consequences, potentially preventing England earning five entries – instead of the current four – to next season’s Champions League, when the competition extends to 36 teams.

Bonus extra entries are given to the two countries whose teams have the best collective record across the three Uefa competitions this season. If Newcastle and Manchester United are eliminated, the English challenge is hurt.

For the moment, that’s the least of Howe’s worries. He will try to get one more big performance out of his fatigued squad in front of a passionate crowd that enjoyed one of the club’s greatest ever nights in early October, when Newcastle thrashed PSG and Mbappe 4-1 in a statement win that announced their arrival back in the big time.

Newcastle have won eight of their last nine home games in all competitions, the only loss coming against Dortmund on 25 October that left Howe’s team facing an uphill task to qualify. It was something of a reality check to a group of players who have been on a wild ride for the past two years.

Beating Milan, the seven-time European champions, to potentially advance would be another pinch-yourself moment for Newcastle fans.

Additional reporting from Associated Press